Good day, ladies and gentlemen, we're going to continue with looking at threat assessment. This, and I can't underline the importance of the threat assessment. As far as security goes too much. This is the basis for any sort of security you're ever going to do. Whether it's physical security, online cyber security, whether you're doing close protection, whether you've been security driver, whatever your skills are in the realm of security and safety. And the threat assessment should be number one thing that you do before you your daily routine, or you go out and drive someone around you should be considering what threats are to that that person in the back of your car as an example.

So here we are going to discuss Section B part two. It's called Reading. So I recommend that you definitely understand this. I'm going to go through lots of text, as usual. And I'm also going to sort of highlight with experience rather than read it word for word, which I think is a better more value way for you guys to use whatever experience I have for your for your disposal. So this is a critical point this first line threat assessments are a snapshot in time.

That's exactly why I keep saying that cyclical I, by that, I mean that threat assessments you should do it on a daily basis. If you live in a working in a very busy location. You may set the standard differently if you live in a low or medium threat place, but they're just a snapshot in time. So on the days you put that threat assessment together that's the threat assessment for say Monday. The 12th of August that will change maybe by Tuesday, or the week after, or the month after. Depending usually, depending on the threat level, there may be something critical or changes it.

Like there's a big event in town, the g7, stocking up tons of criminals flooding in lots of police and security forces on the streets, lots of traffic disruption, higher potential for terrorist attack. If the terrorists contact the venue because there's more police, they may attack something on the outskirts, such as a hotel or a restaurant. So that venue has impacted on your whole threat assessment for that period. And maybe that you have a threat assessment before the venue. You do a threat assessment for the venue period, and then you may go back to that original threat assessment because things are going to go back to the way they were So that's why the it's a threat. That's right.

That's why it's a snapshot in time. So it's never a one time event, don't just do it. When you start the job, go ahead, I'm gonna do a threat assessment of our organization, you spend time and effort, do a threat assessment, and then that's it, because it will change. And then you'll miss out on things. You won't understand how fluid some of the threats are, you will weren't put in place the correct security measures, the mitigation that's going to save your staff from road traffic accidents, or at least reduce the risk. So we're going to look at, again, the continuing process of threat assessment.

And I think I'm mentioned external context. First, outside factors such as that venue, for instance, other road users on the road, or flight safety. Someone left a screw and an engine that made the thing crash there. There are millions of external possibilities, you can only look at the main ones that will impact on the safety and security of everything that you are supposed to be looking after. Climate is one, monsoon weather roads I've discussed. And so your knowledge, your experience of how that usually impacts on movement on the safety and security of movement is valuable.

And so you can project that. And you could say, All right over the next few months of the monsoon, there's going to be we're going to have less travel or we're going to be carrying more equipment in the vehicle. And we're going to make sure that we communicate much, much better, and so that you get check ins every hour. So there's lots of different external contexts that could affect our threat assessment, and conflict. And conflict is a big one. I mean, so sit down, look at that as an example, then not necessary.

Currently fighting against external actors they're fighting internally. They cannot get their act together. And politically, they keep fighting. They've all got their own little armies, that when they're activated and fighting each other, and only cause lots of issues, and injuries and deaths themselves, it's the civil population that that takes the brunt. And also, if you're in the country, you may have to activate the emergency action plan to get people out. If you look on national staff, you can't get out.

I've got to live in now How you going to look after them? Or do you look after them? And you know, is that part of your remit? Are you going to be left out? What are you going to do? What are you going to do with your family?

So conflict can be a huge, a huge factor. And it may be that you can see that an indicator that things are happening, things are bubbling away, that things are worsening. But I've mentioned previously that the clang conflict, it may shut down one sixth of the road and you've got travelers stuck on the other side want to get back, and you can no longer get out and do your do your job. And so even sort of limited area conflict can cause a whole lot of problems. Some law, crime, legal activity, crime levels change, they usually go up. But of course, the more police you get in areas, more security forces, if they're any good, they will reduce crime.

So all that impacts you have to take into account not only do does extremists activity happen, what's the response to that extremist activity? What are the police doing? Are they doing nothing? That's a factor. Are they doing something other than being proactive? are they sending more troops and other other doing intelligence led operations and so that in turn, Colonel reduce the threat based on that context.

And government politics at the bottom there that constantly a lot of countries constantly bitching away, causing conflict, whereas they should be improving the lot of the local population, and like they're constantly making it worse in some instances. So how are they interacting with the safety and security? does what one person said, say is one politician say, does it trigger protests and demonstrations that could affect the safety and security of your staff, all those sort of things you have to start looking at and changes in health and mon we have a bola in DRC. Of course, that's a huge concern. So it affects people moving in you projects, ongoing business. All that and then you've got just The underlying health issues, they're not necessarily part of your remit.

But if you have stuff coming down with illness, then you want to make sure that that doesn't spread in your company. You want to make sure that they don't go into affected areas. And so you want to you want to monitor what what is going on around you and take security and safety measures to try and minimize it. And do any of these factors or combination of factors created threat or do they increase the threat? Or do they potentially decrease the threat for instance, with the police and security forces going into areas or reducing crime? So conducting a threat assessment you have to gather your information.

What it says take caution that means who your sources where are your sources from your sources should be good, solid, valid and unbiased as much as possible. sources. So I start to look for background knowledge. As I've said before the FCO website where they give country briefings. The Department of State's US Department of State's travel safety website, they give briefings. They're pretty unbiased, they obviously come with, there's nothing that's not biased in some way or other.

And it may not give you detailed information. But it certainly gives you the perspective of what you think outsiders if you're live working or living in a country when outsiders Think about your country. And that may be valuable if your home office or somewhere else, such as in the US of the UK or the EU, to understand what they think about what's happening in South Sudan or wherever else around the world. So gather your information, maybe from the media, so be careful what are biased newspapers on the media Take it from valid take your information from valid sources the UN's normally I mean un, like every organization has has their plus and minus points but the UN puts out lots of reports on road traffic accidents and incidents against civilians and terrorism instances. There's lots of websites nowadays that you can use where they map actually map incidents and threats.

So I've looked at those if you're in sort of South Asia, Southeast Asia SCTP dot orgy and have a database of incidents which could give you some background historic information if you have a new project started in Pakistan, for instance. And then you have to identify the threats. We're going to go through that long list in section five. Identify your vulnerabilities so it can be travel our staff, our travel vulnerable when they're traveling, because they're up to themselves or in dangerous rows, there's lots of criminal activity or it's monsoon time, or the roads are just bad and the vehicles are poor. And the drivers are crazy. Whatever the reasons, you have to identify what your vulnerabilities are, and then summarize your findings and present your recommendations.

And that's usually when the report comes. So have it in table format, like I've mentioned before, is a very useful way of being able to present your information and then updating it. So let's give them back a little bit, identifying what the threats are. So probable threats, probable means likely to occur. So the probability of something happening so the probability of road accident is it's very likely to happen. The probability of terrorism again, depending where you are in the world is very unlikely.

So it's possible, it means it might happen. So as low down on the scale, it's possible there will be a terrorist attack over the next year in city x, it's probable that we'll have a road traffic accident over the next year. So it's much more likely we say problem is very probable, highly likely, highly probable, then it's gonna it's gonna happen or expected to happen on a day to day basis. So using the term probable and possible is quite important possible means lower down the spectrum of it's likely to happen probable means it's highly likely to happen likely highly likely to happen. So it's helpful to assign probability likelihood rating to threats. And here's sort of breakdown again so scale one to five very unlikely quite unlikely to happen.

Self explanatory majorities unlikely, but this is the terminology should be should be used when you're talking about the fact. And when you're assessing the threats, moderately likely a chance it might happen likely very likely. So it's very unlikely, unlikely, moderately likely, very likely is imminent, almost sudden happens a road accident, road traffic accidents are very likely some of your other stuff. Your organized crime, for instance, may be moderately likely it's a it's a chance it might happen, but not really. So you have to gauge what each threat what the probability of each threat is. And how does it impact on you, your organization?

Another scale negligible, it's gonna be very large. So if there's a terrorist attack in the city, it's negligible. It's gonna have any impact on us. That could be your assessment. If they attack your building, then they could be critical. There's gonna be a very high impact.

It could be catastrophic. staff could be killed, all our assets, our business continuity will be destroyed, and it could affect our reputation because we allowed it to happen. Or somewhere in the middle road traffic accidents if you have a road traffic accident, what is the impact rating? Well, it's very likely to happen. But what's the impact? The impact could be serious and moderate, because there's usually only one or two staff traveling, it's going to be very serious for them.

But on the business, the impact is going to be moderate. So you see this, there's different scales. terrorist attack, may be very unlikely to happen. But when it does happen, the impact can be very high road accidents very likely to happen. But the impact could be less, it's going to affect two staff members may be important for them. And we're not taking away the importance of dealing with it and responding to it.

But the impact is a bit more moderate. As far as business level goes. And here we have a little bit of drawing the last rather than just text, the threat matrix is a very good way to visualize the likelihood and impact of threats. And here's the threat matrix. This is a very good way to visualize the likelihood and impact of threats. And let's go through a couple.

So on the left hand column here, you have the likelihood and it goes through what we just discussed. very unlikely, unlikely, moderately, likely, likely and very likely are a minute so one to five. On the top, the impact, negligible minor, moderate, severe and critical. We've gone through the auto accident, for instance. So we've assessed that, say in our capital city where the main offices, roads accidents are moderately likely, I would suggest that by way will be a little bit more higher. But an A varies from country to country.

But this took this one through we've assessed it's moderately likely. So it's there we are in the moderate likely box. And then we assess the impact negligible minor moderate, we previously said it would be moderate if there's only one or two people in the vehicle and not necessarily severe and critical from a business perspective or from an organizational perspective, not from the, the perspective of the two people in the vehicle for instance. So therefore, we use got more than likely Along auto accident, and that yellow box indicates that we're up in the moderate sort of area. And that will indicate that we may build in some mitigation measures to try and reduce that even further to try and get it into this sort of green box. So if we, for instance, first aid kits, giving first aid training, give the drivers some training, fit the tracking that encourages drivers to keep the speed down.

Now, we think that well, it's actually less likely now to happen, it's still gonna be a moderate impact. But now we're in the green area after we've built in all those security measures. So it's an indication of where you are at any given time, and then an indication that you may want to build in some extra security and safety measures to actually reduce that further. So doing all that Things are generally low cost Puffin the tracking, I suppose measures, training, briefing. And this will sort of small levels of equipment, fire extinguishers, ensuring their wear their seatbelts, all that stuff will bring down the likelihood and may even reduce the impact. So you would be down to minor if you encourage them with a seat belts all the time and all the other stuff and you're down to unlikely once if you give the driver some additional training, and then encourage them to keep the speed down all the time.

But that shows you where you would be at the start. Let's talk about one there's not one there's terrorism. So again, depending on where you are in the world, it may be that terrorism is likely. And there's there's pretty much an underlying threat of terrorism. If you're not in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, there's pretty much an underlying threat of terrorism. Wherever you The world nowadays, sadly.

So we'll call it for the sake of demonstration, likely the impact if it happens in the city, but nowhere near you is going to be minor, maybe there may be some sort of maybe borderline between minor or moderate. If it's an area where staff go in a restaurant and staff get killed or injured, and obviously it's going to be up here somewhere. If it's a direct attack, run an indirect incident, then it's going to be up here, isn't it because tourists don't mess around they'll do the surveillance. So watch what you've got, watch what you get up to and then of course, as many customers as possible. So I suggest that the impact is going to be up around here somewhere. And this, this area, this red, this orange are really the areas you want to focus on the areas where you want to ensure that you're seeking purity and safety, attention is focused a lot of time away, you put a lot of time and effort into building the measures to reduce and avoid the risk quite considerably.

So you want to focus. So given a few terrorism is up around here somewhere, that would be a big concern, and you would want to start building models. And if you're in certain countries where kidnapping is likely, and the kidnapping of a staff member is critical, obviously, that focusing that your attention on that would reduce your attention on terrorism, it would prioritize it above terrorism, for instance. So you then you would have focus on that first, focus on terrorism, focus on earthquakes, focus on auto accidents, and then go down to petty theft. And if it's very likely imminent, but negligible, then that may be something like briefing the staff up in next staff meeting, say, Hey, don't carry your bags around in public. Don't wear your bling, and be very careful about locking doors.

Office doors and securing windows when you leave, and then that would be it, your focus would have to come back to you read in your own chairs. And that's how you tend to map out your threats, your threats based on your assessment. And a good little model like this would either have the names of the threats, or you would have a little dealt with a number on and that would relate elsewhere to your one to 25 list or one to 22 List of threats. And so that you can use that as component part of your reports. That's how you use a threat matrix and it linked in with your threat assessments. And again, thanks for your time.

Next thing we're going to do, we're going to look at section five. So we've, we've, we now understand how generally to do a threat assessment how to put it together use the risk matrix so we can help our reporting our measuring and prioritizing these threats. Now we're going to look at in a bit more detail. Threats themselves. And that's where it starts to get quite complex because, believe it or not, there are quite a few of them. I'm sure you understand that as much as I do.

Thanks very much again for your time. Speak soon.