Section 7 - 2 - Industry Future And Focal Points

How to Stay Employed in the Robotic Future Section 7 - Future Self Driving Cars And TaaS Employment Opportunities
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Transcript

Alrighty, so now let's have a bit of a look into the industries potential future or the future opportunities for it. So in terms of technology and sort of generalizing a bit to try and get a better idea about where self driving cars might go, in terms of technology for most things for most major products, historically speaking, there's always been a few kind of big winners. So think your, you know, Google in terms of search or Android and iOS in terms of mobile phone operating systems, think your Intel and AMD in terms of processing production technology or you know, many other scenarios out there, your Windows and Mac OS in terms of operating systems. It's usually a case of around two or one to four companies or one to four system. or companies or, you know, products that really take the lion's share of the full technology, they'll take, you know, 8090 plus percent of all the mobile phones or the computers, whatever it is that we're talking about.

And that other 10% is, you know, made up by hundreds, or sometimes even thousands of small companies or products or whatever it might be. And I'd expect that self driving technology would be no different from this trend, in that will potentially see, you know, anywhere from one to four companies really take the lion's share of that, you know, product and become the de facto standard for self driving cars. Whether this is something like Tesla, where it's a fully integrated system where, you know, everyone starts driving Tesla's could happen, who knows. And you know, they make both the hardware and the software or whether it's more like something like way mo where they make the software or the you know, the self driving technology, which does include some of the hardware, like LIDAR and sentience. But ultimately, they don't make the actual car itself, you know, they attach their self driving technology to, you know, a Jaguar eyepiece, which is what they're currently doing, or they attach it to a semi trailer or attach it to a, you know, Ferrari, whatever it might be.

They sort of on sell that technology to many, many different hardware partners. But, you know, ultimately, 90% of the cars that you can buy end up having way more self driving technology in it. That could be how it sort of plays out. I don't know. But generally speaking, in historically speaking, that's how it kind of most likely will this one to four companies sort of dominating the entire market. Now, obviously, Wei, Mo and Tesla aren't the only ones out there.

There's also Uber who are desperately trying to get their systems up and running and working product as well. Even though they're having some You know, digital currencies at the moment. But, you know, ultimately, while we can't predict exactly when this technology will debut, it's most generally agreed by most people in the industry that it will be about 2020 or shortly thereafter, you know, anywhere from 2022 2021 22. That's the area. One of the key things about this technology is that, you know, unlike something like eBay, where it'll just get rolled out to a whole country or multiple countries very quickly, because it's in the automotive industry, it is quite heavily regulated, which means it'll have to go through, you know, regulation and approval and testing and safety and all that sort of stuff, you know, for each particular city for each particular state or maybe even country.

Different countries will have different laws, you know, it will take a long, long time and on top of that, it'll be at different points for different countries and possibly in different states at different times, so I'm from Australia, so perhaps in New South Wales, one of our states, you know, maybe they'll be really forward thinking and, you know, be more than happy to have self driving cars be totally legal throughout the entire state. Whereas, you know, maybe Western Australia or another state will, you know, be a bit more cautious, and maybe they'll come in two years later, after they've seen the results that New South Wales has got, or maybe the entire country will adopt it and approve it straightaway. And, you know, perhaps a different country like Germany or France or something like that, maybe they'll be more cautious and wait for, you know, Australia to sort of see how it goes.

So it'll be different for different states, different countries, mainly because the regulators have to actually approve that, you know, sitting there in a car, you know, reading a newspaper or whatever it is that you're doing playing on your phone while your car drives you is safe is legal, and You know, whoever's technology that gets there first, whether it's testimonial, YMO, whoever it is, has been proven to be safe, and that they're happy with that level of safety. So, as each of these technologies get, you know, fully developed and it progresses through it, we can hopefully watch these sorts of events happening and unfold in real time to really give us a proper idea of how close this technology is to sort of rolling out, you know, if you're saying that your whole country is being very, you know, bad and you know, negative towards self driving cars and constantly vilifying it, and no, I'd never trusted 80% of people in polls say that, no, they'd never have a car drive them, then, you know, perhaps your industry might be a little safer than they'd be, you know, in California or something like that, where they're a bit more forward thinking and a happy for technology to go crazy and you know, be rolled out straightaway or whichever the case may be.

So, if this is, you know, potential future technology that is going to affect your position or your industry. It's good to watch out for those, you know, sort of signs as the technology gets developed, it gets fully rolled out, then you know, regulators and people in your state or country start to argue about whether or not it's legal would be another sort of stepping stone. And when they finally approve, it would obviously be a major milestone. At that point, you know, then things start to really get interesting because you can actually go out and buy a product in your country that actually self drives it and that's when it starts to affect your industry in general. Now, once it actually does get properly developed and released and is approved by your government or whoever it is, then I would expect it the very new technology the first cars that come out that can self drive themselves will be you know, a little bit clunky or a little bit limited.

It's like any new technology, you know, you remember 10 years ago, when the first iPhone came out, it didn't even have 3g, you know, internet activity, it was still on 2g, even though 3g was a very big, you know, well rolled out thing at that point it was, you know, kind of clunky it was, you know, not the best, obviously. But at the same time, everyone could see that technology was a huge leap over what it was before and would, you know, once it gets developed, definitely be the future. And obviously, it was. So I would expect the same thing again, for self driving cars, perhaps they will only drive you on freeways or only drive you on roads that are, you know, faster than 80 kilometers an hour or something like that, where they're very well marked, or you know, certain scenarios or maybe they're geo locked to particular sections of a city or freeway or a bird, whatever it might be.

But as the technology gets better and better and better at that, you know, will increase and you'll be able to have them drive you anywhere at any speed in any condition. Maybe you'll only be able to be you know, self driving when it's daylight and good weather, maybe if it's snowing or something like that it won't work, originally, but we'll come online later. So these are all certain things to be expected when the technology does come out. It's often a big sticking point for a lot of people that I see that brand new products come out and, you know, say for argument's sake, you can go and buy a self driving car, but it only works during the day, and it only works during good weather. And, you know, it'll still drive you but it finally works in those two scenarios. Everyone sort of jumps on that and goes, Oh, it'll never work.

You know, what's the point? It's stupid. You know, they'll they'll do that thing where they vilify the technology and make fun of it, because it's only limited to driving during the day and during good weather and what happens when it rains all you have to drive yourself, you know, they make a lot of fun of it. But once technology gets to that point, that's a very, very quick iteration cycle to be fully driverless in order. scenarios all day and night, you know, it's not the mistake that you want to make to just sort of make fun of that technology because it will very quickly get better and better. The other very important future opportunity for self driving cars or the general industry for autonomous cars is a sort of new term that's been coined, which is tassel t a s, which stands for transport as a service.

So similar to how you have you know, your Uber and your Lyft and you pay a certain fee, they come and actually transport you around. This is what Taz is at a fundamental level. And the reason that it's not really looked at and particularly cared about too much at the moment is because you still have full regular people driving those Uber or Lyft cars, but you can make the jump in assumption that Once fully self driving cars become available, there's a good chance they'll also be electric cars. Well, you will now have an Uber car that drives itself can pick you up by itself drive you anywhere and then go off and, you know, drive someone else around all the electric or be self driving. It's a very, very, very good opportunity for companies like Uber or Lyft. That's one of the main reasons that they're pursuing that self driving technology so that they can make the service better, they can make it cheaper, obviously, because there's no one driving the car, they don't have to pay that driver anymore.

And if it's also an electric car, it again makes the running costs of it much, much cheaper because electric cars don't cost as much to run in terms of gas versus, you know, petrol and electric, as well as actually maintain and you know, maintenance costs are listed as less as well. So, lots and lots of cost savings. And you can sort of imagine in the future once they've become, you know, very predominant and you know, everyone's comfortable with self driving cars, that Google might start to, you know, offer a service where you know, instead of having your own car and owning it and maybe paying 10 $20,000 for it upfront, and then paying for red Joe and the insurance and the parking and the, you know, servicing costs and all this sort of money and headache of dealing with it, and parking it and taking care of it and all that sort of stuff, you can instead just not own a car at all, and pay Uber say $2,000 a year.

And with that subscription service, you get maybe 15,000 kilometers or about, you know, 10,000 miles per year worth of free Uber rides, you can just pull up their app and use it for up to 15,000 kilometers each year and that $2,000 pay for it. And they've done sort of modeling and estimates on what this will cost and they found that it could be upwards of 10 times cheaper than operating you know, a normal Uber car in terms of taking The driver of making it electric. So these are pretty huge cost reductions. And it's not just about the cost as well. Transport as a service has a lot of other extra benefits for the consumer as well like that Uber can use to sell you this product. So things like you can be picked up drunk.

Obviously, you don't have to ever worry about parking again. So if you don't own a car and you've got transport as a service, you can just go straight to work hop out at the front door and off you go. You can get picked up at the front door as well. Your children can also use the service without, you know, you being the actual driver. So you know you can sit in bed while they get driven to soccer practice without you know you having to hop up or be bothered or anything like that. You can choose the right car for the right occasion.

So in this case, it's actually something most people don't think about. But if you don't own a car and you're always renting an Uber, you don't necessarily have to get Same Uber every single time. So you can get a sports car if you're going, you know, on a nice vacation or something like that. Or you can get a four wheel drive if you're going on a different sort of vacation, or you can get a minivan if you've got, you know, six kids, and you need to transport them to soccer practice or whatever it might be. So you can rent the exact right caught every single time for the thing that you're actually doing. And finally, you can also you don't have to worry about actual insurance, retro repairs, maintenance, all that sort of stuff that I mentioned before, it's, you know, there is a certain amount of, you know, pain, it's a bit of a pain in the butt to constantly be taken care of those things.

And there's lots of other points as well, but I think he can sort of start to see that this might become a very compelling service, especially for those in the city. And then parking is a huge, huge pain point for a lot of people and it's quite expensive as well. If you always get dropped off at the front of your work and picked up from the front of your work every single time you hop in a car. It's nice In relaxing, you know, you just get driven home to and from work. You can do whatever you want in the back, you can play on your phone, you can do work, you know, lots and lots of sort of benefits to these servers. And it will most likely be far cheaper than actually owning your own private car.

So it's a very desirable sort of service that I think a lot of people will take up. Now, if transport as a service really does take off, it could be something that you know, is one of those really big inflection points instead of disrupts a huge amount of industries, you know, really, really quickly because when you think about the rollout of it, we will have autonomous cars and they will be quite, you know, well deployed. The country or state will have made it legal at that point. And basically, they'll have all the infrastructure ready to go. They'll just be waiting on that, you know, one legal decision to say yes, autonomous cars and our legal and then banned You know, Uber can roll out 10,000, autonomous Ubers to a particular city and just flood the market with it. All of a sudden, you know, literally it can be overnight, that Uber services go from, you know, costing whatever they cost to being literally 10 times cheaper for everyone using them.

And everyone will go, Ah, you know, I'll sell my car off and just use this and steaks. It's way cheaper. It's way easier, it's way better. And, you know, you've got this huge influx of people selling their car off, you've got this huge influx of people no longer driving, you've got this huge influx of people shifting from, you know, gas or petrol powered cars over to electric cars as well, because these will be most likely electric autonomous cars. And that doesn't just affect, you know, people that build cars or something like that. It affects people that, you know, actually repair the cars it affects the secondhand market for those cars if everyone's trying to sell off the gas pedal cars all at once or in a very short timeframe, the cost of that car will probably plummet.

It affects people that, you know, service, the Uber drivers with food or anything like that. It affects many, many, many different industries. And it can happen, you know, very, very quickly, as soon as that legal decision is actually made. So it's a very big thing that I would highly suggest keeping an eye on. Even if you're not, particularly in the transportation industry, it's still something that could, you know, in a sort of second or third knock on effect really affect your industry. I mean, for instance, maybe you deal with car parks, and that's your thing, you know, you own and rent out car parks or whatever.

It doesn't seem like that would be affected by autonomous cars, but in actual effect, it will because if everyone's getting around an autonomous car, they can drop them off at the front of their work and then go off again. They no longer need to, you know, buy your car, Park and park there. car in it because they don't own a car anymore. So there's lots of different sort of ways you can approach this. And it's not always immediately relevant, you know, what will be affected with this change, but it is something that I highly recommend keeping an eye on. So I know that all might sound a bit bleak and negative again.

So we'll go into the final section for this industry, which is obviously another example of how the strategy works, but also give some other examples of potential future employment opportunities. So yes, this will be affecting a lot of people and possibly putting them out of their job. But a lot of new positions will be created and there are still a lot of positions open for you to go into. So have a chat about that in the next time.

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