Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Section five, where we're going to look at the threat list more. So more thoughts about assessing the threats. And yeah, it's quite a big subject because it's very important. As I've said previously, this is really the start point for your security model. Without this you screwed model will fail, because it won't be focusing on the right areas, pretty much.

This makes your security efficient, and your safety and it also serves as a tool with which you can go to your employer, you can go to your boss and say, hey, look, these are the threats. These are were the areas I've looked at. This is the list that are in the order of priority and measured to show us which ones are most likely to happen or which are the most which caused the most impact ranging down to the least And with that you can justify your increase and even decrease in security. If the threat levels change with lower in some areas crime maybe because there's 100 more policemen on the street, then you may not want to have such strict access controls to your office, for instance, so that there's plus points or minus points, but it's something that you have to keep a close eye on.

What we're going to go through is the exact list itself. So we'll look at our most likely threats and we want to look at pretty much every threat not every single threat because that's impossible. It's also so time consuming that it won't be efficient. You've got to look at the most likely and like I've said before, I when I tend to go to countries and do threat assessments. I ended up with around about 22 to 2425 as the Most likely once the maybe another 25 say that you wouldn't even think until they happen. And that's why you have crisis response plans in case the unforeseen happens or incident management plans.

And but for the most part, that initial list should cover pretty much everything and maybe subcategories, which you haven't yet covered, and we'll discuss some of those. But for the most part, they should cover most of the foreseeable threats. So the most likely threats are the safety threats. And now we've discussed remember, safety is unintentional harm. Whereas security is more intentional harm, so criminals intend to attack you in the street. Rob you in the street, Rob your officers, terrorists, robbers to blow things up.

Road Traffic, mostly accidents. Fire is usually an accident. Health well, health itself, what can you say real, and it happens. And sadly we get ill through a whole variety of reasons and natural disasters happen. But these we can minimize the likelihood the minimize the fact that they'll happen, like I've said before like washing your hands when you come out the toilet for as far as health goes and health also incorporates accidents at work. So that should be broken down on previous lessons health stroke accidents because you can reduce accidents at work as well.

So, but then normally your top four and natural disasters upright is probably the one that's going to go down a bit. We looked at South Sudan discussed South Sudan and that I mean it has floods and, but that's monsoon season so it's going to happen every year. It can be a disaster. But it's not as hugely damaging as an earthquake could be, for instance, whereas nearby Ethiopia is on earthquake fault into Kenya, all way across that region. If there was an earthquake, it could potentially be a huge one. Same with Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh or Ronda, it can be pretty huge.

And then you've got your Indonesia's the Philippines, the ring of fire out there, where you got volcanoes and almost daily earthquakes. So the problems are considerably huge. often they're down no one My point being is often their natural disasters will be the one that goes drops down the list a little bit depending on what country you're in. So here's an example of a threat list from Dhaka in Bangladesh. Let me explain this to you. So obviously, the top line here explains what each columns for section and simple enough instant type we've got Road Traffic fire safety health most natural disaster not to just to slip down to 10 fraud rule of law crime yeah we got the usual terrorism is up round about middle threats intimidation, civil disorder there's usually lots of demonstrations and within the section they're interchangeable so in effect you know terrorism may really be up at so it's high anyway, so it's in.

So that's the call of notic explains the incident type and you may get some of these broken down a mess this before kidnapping experts kidnapping locals is more of a cottage a little bit more of a cottage industry in Bangladesh a little less likely if you're an expat because it's just creates so much complications for the kidnappers. And you go down the bottom landmines cluster munitions, there aren't that many. So it's zero to 20. We got a scoring system here the level, so this is one to five, one being the lowest is blue. Remember I showed you one that was one four previously, but it's your choice. 123 explains it as well.

And I quite liked the one to five and because it gives you a little bit more of a gradient to drop things in. So let the low sort of one scale. You've got landmines moderate crime, home invasion, Home Office invasion doesn't happen that much moderate to Sir and the final column here assessed likelihood. How often do you think it's going to happen? Say any around about 20 to 40%. So once once a month.

It could happen once or twice a month maybe. And that's what that score is is to give it a an assessment of likelihood. Who knows how often an earthquake gonna happen? Now if happens once it can happen five times that week so it's it's difficult to put a number to it but then you can look historically and say how many of the been in the past is an earthquake a year so Okay, then your your potentially the likelihood is lower and into into the high so the highs are sorry mediums the yellow and that gets a level of three hyzer we've got a level of four narratives the orange and they've got a higher likelihood of happening threats, intimidation, terrorism, political stability or instability, natural disaster crime, all more likely to happen than a landmine, for instance, which makes a bit of sense, and then we're moving up into the extreme the The one we really really want to focus on.

So we want to focus on initially if we feel limited for time we would say okay, we want to focus on the extreme ones extreme our road traffic fire safety, health, infrastructure fraud, graft corruption, rule of law, police security and unlawful arrest and detention. There what we need to focus on some of those, we can do something about some of those not quite so much. Say for instance, infrastructure, there's not a whole lot we can do. We could you know, if it if it's our building, if it's the airport, then we're, we haven't got much we could do it if it's bridges and we can we can change the procedures and our routines a little bit, but it's a little bit difficult to do much with that. rule of law. Again, it's something we can train staff about one about, if not something we can actually affect a great deal and I'm saying before, but you can see now you got Got a prioritized list, and they're all measured.

And then right at the top where it says the current average, what, what I've done is add all these up, divide them by the number 22. And it comes out as a 3.84, which gives us a medium, an average of media, medium level 3.81 score, and around about 50% of the time, something out of this is going to happen. So that's, that's the way I tend to do it. Now when I'm doing it on a full report, I'll have this will be the like, almost like the executive summary and below, I will have this, the serial numbers and the categories and to the right, I'll have an explanation about where I found this information, and how, how that affects the project. So it'll be a small paragraph on justification of why it's in here at all and why it's at that level. That's the breakdown.

Wherever you are in the world, they potentially these instance types will be a concern and potentially someone so you have to look at each one and go retro. Yes, we're over a barrel we're down six harassment years. natural disaster. Okay, so say this is going to be done for the UK natural disasters. Not really. So we don't have earthquakes done of volcanoes, not anymore.

Tsunamis, no yeah, we get terrible weather. But so natural disaster is probably going to go maybe 21 above landmines who don't have any landmines really over. political stability, I would say UK is depends but for the most part, it's pretty stable. So that won't be a threat, economic stability, same conflict. We're not really at war with with anyone. At the moment, and it's not a conflict that's going to affect having offices in the UK, for instance.

So we may be in a conflict in Afghanistan, and that may attract some terrorism. But the conflict in itself is probably a low threat. So all your stuff down there and probably low threats. Crime there is crime, civil disorder, threats, intimidation, I would say go down because you can go to the police in the UK and make complaint they'll do something about it. So lots of this, sort of from maybe three downwards will be different, and the levels will be different. Potentially you'll have road traffic as high fire safety as medium health as medium because you've got social healthcare there.

So you can just take anyone to a hospital anyway and they've got better ways of trying to prevent health issues, infrastructure is pretty good. And fraud and definitely not saying that it doesn't exist but it's lower on down. So your these may well be high. If this was a UK scenario, and then you'd be moving on to pretty much Lowe's pretty quick. So the score overall maybe something like a to 2.5 which if you look at the FCO website is or some of the other websites where they give scores, then you could probably work around about the set the same. And this is what I mean by the FCA website.

I'm just gonna click that in front of you. And let's have a look at United States. Are they do the UK is an example. Okay. That network maybe because I'm using it on the with the slideshow now. That's right.

This is press Select for a country. Sorry, I'm continuing to do this. While no we go. So this is what I may want to talk about the FCR website looked at Molly. So something something different is a threat map. So see the color coding.

Color coding is the same as we would as we do for this. That's why it's a sort of industry standard. And people know red for danger. Orange is nearly dangerous, so you have to be careful. Let's look for another country. Choose a country like Canada one contrary to what They've got they've got a vise, the no map, trying to show the map.

That's disappointing. Huh? Bahamas looking for a map for the color coding? Well, there's information Anyway, I'm not doing very well here I have all the countries I could choose and choosing the ones where they don't have the map. and South Sudan we talked about that. And it gives good advice.

That's another example of South Sudan. All right. Perfect. And that you so from this, you'll be able to appreciate that sets down as a high extreme threat country to travel in anywhere. So straightaway, you can see the reason the purpose behind the color coding. I'll do one more.

I'm trying to find a country that's sort of mix up oh my goodness was on the map Scott and I have advice and you can go through travel security, safety and security and this this gives you the baseline of information, if done like with the Brits can provide the Americans do some similar Australians to one last one. I'm desperate to show you something. There we go. This is a good example. So yeah, now going along with our color coded system here. You've got down the so down the South Port Harcourt is high risk.

In the middle layer, there's moderate risks. Again, it goes back to high risk and then up in the northeast. You've got some areas where you don't really want to And they're impacted by also what's what's happening across the borders. So you see the color coding system. This is a visual way of projecting this, but in a much more general way. So it doesn't say what the threat is just an overall, it's averaged out.

The threat here is who has done what or what I did on the top line, by by region. And you can see it there. And that's a very good way of doing it. And you know, if you get hold of maps, like there are mapping systems that can do that for you. And I'm, again looking, it wasn't my intention to show a whole load of different articles to you, but I think is valuable anyway. Anyway, here we go.

Here's a good mapping system. In this drill down, this is where all The terrorist attacks have been January 1 to August 22 2019. And you can drill down even further. So there's Nigeria or Harcourt Northwest Nigeria so that that map we've just seen. And that's from a different organization that drills down and explains in a bit more detail as to why that area of North East Nigeria is actually red. And here this one, you can, it tells you here on the left, what it says what it's all about.

And you can see the link there about terrorist attacks, the sort of the story maps as calm is where you get this data from. So there's a whole there's many many, many good reasons to color code it to give it levels to prioritize it to measure it, and the majority is for your own benefit. So you can start focusing on the most Likely things to hurt or injure your staff, but also you can sell your intentions your plans to your line managers. So some considerations when assessing the threats. It's a lot not going to read this out and have a read through it. But there are some considerations as it says in the title.

Do they travel some offices, businesses don't travel they'll sit they'll come in nine to five work and then that's it. They've got some need to travel into some pretty crappy areas to do humanitarian work for is deliberate. And they need obviously looking after. And one example of I'm going off on a tangent after I listen said I wouldn't, but there are some good examples of security management And analysis apps that are going on. Let's have a look and see if this works for us. So Road Traffic routes are real traffic and travel is really hard work to you have to manage it very closely.

So we've we've all agreed that the northeast of Nigeria is quite a challenging place to work. So let's see what we can the sort of things we can do with this. For instance, if we're going from here to degree, draw that route to some distances, hundred 93 kilometers, three hours and 38 minutes, and we're going to do is we're going to put the incidence on. We're going to go for countries we don't want to take forever. Let's get down to Nigeria. Yeah huh here we go I'm so search for Nigeria for incidents we'll look for the mall search.

Oh, here we go. We got a few now to look at time and look for a date range sorry. This is just over the past couple of months you see there's quite a few. If we did a quarter then we're going to get even more naturally. This might give us a good idea of what this route if we're traveling south to north, you know what this means. is all about it's busy and let's see what sort of instance we have.

And fighter jet all right weapons ambush, so we got some ambushes on this road. ambush, right so we're starting to get a picture of what's happening on the road. I'll be quick leaks and try and teach this. So the one more and this is a great tool, direct weapons small arms fire conflict, Boko Haram attacked the village. So we're, we're we're getting some good information about our route from south to north. It's very, very dangerous.

We can also look at similar type of maps, some of the heat map and I started show us where Travel is going to be the most impacted. So there's our route, south to north. And of course, the closer we get to my degree, the visitor is going to get. So we're going to need it starts starts around about here. And then the closer we get there, it's so this is a good security tool to allow us to analyze what is what is actually going on in the area. And it's very valid.

The same with the terrorist threat if we're working for a company when in lots of different countries, that is a wonderful tool. I mean, if you're in one country, that's a great tool for working out what's going on. And that last one we just seen as a good tool for digging right down to the tactical level. Fire we're gonna look at how good is the fire service is the one can you rely on them? You know, in the US, you can rely on the fire service turn up pretty quickly. Even if it's Russia, they'll they'll fight their way through to get to a fire.

Fires will wipe out an office within minutes. Okay, and I'm talking about hours or overnight minutes, have a look on YouTube fires. And you'll see really and you may well be surprised how quickly they takes hold. Again, health infrastructure, read through these at your own in your own time. But some of these are useful paragraphs to pretty much learn and so that you can build up your knowledge about these component parts to a threat assessment. And then you can better justify What do you need in the paragraphs?

Exactly the same crime, carjacking, banditry roadblocks, if you're going on that route in Nigeria, for instance, there may well be some of this as well. And so you have to build that into your journey management. So you have this is a security manager, you have to look after your traveling staff. Even if they're traveling early in the morning, you have to be ready for that call from sender in trouble. And beforehand, you got to plan and prepare them so that they they know what to do in the event of all types of emergencies. Sexual harassment, different countries, different rules, and but it doesn't, you know, sexual harassment is never right.

So, what what it means by different rules is that in some countries, it's a little bit more historically accepted than it is in other countries. So you have to get Make sure your staff are aware. Make sure you're international travels if you have any are aware of the possibilities and the what to do and what not to do in the event something happens. And we've been talking about threat assessment. This is the sort of background to it. What you would put in the paragraph is yes, it happens here.

It's slowly getting better, and so on so forth. Photograph of corruption mentioned that it is a biggie in some ways, in many countries, you can't do anything without there being some sort of fraudulent activity, whether it's run by someone in your office, or its builders or its people are selling cars. I mean, I've done fraud inquiries where people were importing cars in the company name from Japan into Africa, and the company knew nothing about it. So apart from them paying a ton of money to import a car or away from Japan. This is the whole all the fraud and everything that goes on behind that the paperwork And the way it may well be organized criminal activity drug related, they tend to keep themselves to themselves. So it's a it's a good way of understanding what the crime is as far as organized crime goes.

And it's also a start point of avoiding them where possible because once you draw their attention, then they're very hard to get rid of. And because if the drug related, generally got a lot of money and a lot of power behind them, and they can do pretty much what they want, usually in countries while there's very limited police effort, rule of law, long paragraph, in some countries, you may because you're working for a Western organization, by example, you may run the risk of getting locked up or just being in the wrong place at the wrong time if you're carrying out humanitarian activities in certain villages. The police or security forces turn up, you could get arrested just by being there. So they're very, they're very many different profiles around the rule of law. And a lot of it depends on how good are they and how established are the rules and regulations for the police.

Do they have a good police force? And are they looking after you rather than looking after the politicians or whoever else? That's a disaster. Some, there's a link good link. There you US government earthquake readiness that goes into some detail about how to look after your staff. Um, but this is a way of looking at what the various threats are within the natural disasters.

You got your subcategories. Or more on there. Yeah, volcanic eruptions. mean that goes off a lot near Indonesia. So you have to be extremely careful. If you're traveling out to the remote areas, but also they can be accompanied by earthquakes, and which in turn can be accompanied by tsunamis.

So you've got a lot a lot of things to think about and how they may impact on your travelers and your office locations. This is an important one, as I've said previously, there's interlocking see, what's the right word? There's there's an interlock connection. There we go between the physical and cyber. And it's the physical components usually is the laptops, the phones, the it stuff, hard drives, passwords, backups, encryption, it is it cyber security related, but it's also physical related because if you lose a laptop, it can be very important. And people tend not to report them until the last minute.

So you're six months down the line. You've lost a ton of company information. Now a lot of if you work in humanitarian business, you're open to a lot of auditing by your donors. A lot of the information can be on that laptop and you haven't reported it, or it hasn't been reported, or it's only just been reported it stolen a year ago. So it can cause much more than just a loss of a laptop can cause many more problems. Kidnapping local nationals.

I mentioned this to sort of subcategory in some countries, it's a cottage industry. So you have to be very careful. And also you were looking at session threats of crime home office invasions, in in some countries, breaking into Western offices, is seen as profitable business and others there's much less crime. So again, assess what the threats and measure the threats and see where they are in the prioritization, political stability, some countries more stable, some countries not so much Terrorism, the biggie it's not the biggie as far as day to day threats goes, as I've mentioned previously, but it's the one that people will sit up and take more attention of it's it's the one that travelers are more scared about, especially if they come from Europe in the and the US North America. So you have to be very careful about where you put this and how you justify it.

I it's often in the global countries I go to it's often down near the bottom, even though there has there has been attacks. We look at Kenya Nairobi, for instance, the attacks on a reasonably regular basis by Al Shabaab. But still it has no intrinsic internal terrorist threat usually emanates from Somalia. So is the terrorist threat how Because there's been a few attacks, or is the terrorist threat low because there's hardly any attacks just one or two every few years and the consistent the latest threat from Somalia in between times and difficult assessment. So again, read the website look at the FCO look at the Department of State websites and have a look and make your assessment from there and also your knowledge and experience if you live in Nigeria for Kenya, for instance, Nairobi, kidnapping expats there's a big one. There's a lots and lots of kidnap training going around.

You might want to train your staff or certainly make them aware of what happens. Kidnapping is very, very difficult. In some countries. It's your staff could be kidnapped. licky be gone forever. They just never they're never handed back.

They're sold on two major criminal groups too. sell them on to al Qaeda, who keep them forever. And no one really knows why. Because they don't swap them for money and they don't swap for political gain. It just seems to be the way they do things. So this is obviously a very serious, far reaching threat, which you have to take very, very seriously.

If it's likely to happen in wherever area wherever country, staff are working, threats, intimidation, extortion, people knocking on your office door, how do you deal with that? Does it happen or is it another thing that goes on? gangs may offer your security? So it's, again, you have to take it into account what whatever's whatever goes on around where you've got your interests, riots, demonstrations, protests, and the seasons, the summer seems to be a big season for protests. So bear that in mind, is it? Is it something that doesn't really happen in the winter?

People like to come out in the streets shouting throw things and then the police come up and are very robust, and there's then there's violence. And then there's things thrown and things are put on fire and more damage. So does that happen? Or does it only happen when there are elections? And that seems to be the case for some countries. If what if that's the case?

That's great. And just make a note of that, you know, the the moment the threat level is low for civil disorder demonstrations, but two years time when the presidential elections come along, is likely to increase. That's good sort of threat reporting, and landmines, unexploded ordnance. If you got them, they're a threat. And if you don't, they're not. So take that into account and there's a number of websites you can have a look at that that can give you a clear idea of what type of UFO are out there.

Crime Biggie Smalls Some in some countries are safer than others. Some countries, you don't want to go on the street at all. You may have to encourage people to use vehicles, to get from hotel to meeting places, even if they're just five minutes walk, because they will almost certainly get robbed other countries, they'll be safe walking down the street with their laptop hanging from their arm. So again, look at what the threats are around you, not just your office, but wherever your staff are, where they travel. We've got Molly here. So conflict is another good one.

This and this explains the bit more detail about that. economic stability, this is a challenge when I'm looking at the country ranking that gives you an idea of how it is in the world, whatever country you're in, and that may give you a better indication of where you think the threat level is bearing in mind that if you don't think economic stability is an issue So in the UK, again, going back to the UK economic stability, it's pretty stable. So it would either be To my mind, if I was opening up an office there and going to have projects in the UK, I will put that low, low threat right at the bottom or actually not included at all. And but then, of course, the whole Brexit thing could actually make an issue that could lead to civil disorder and all sorts of so it may be worth be keeping on there.

But you have that option if you don't think it's actually a threat in your country. So that's it. I mean, there's a lot there's a long list, there's the measuring the prioritizing the likelihood of all those incidents, I said I went off on a tangent, looking at the maps and trying to get you some, some idea of the different information sources out there. But thanks very much for your attention. I try to pack as much as possible. And you've always got the option to read back and see what was in what's in the handout.

So you know a little bit more about what I was talking about. Hopefully. Thanks for your attention. Bye