Section 3 - 3 - The Knee Of The Curve

How to Stay Employed in the Robotic Future Section 3 - Accelerating Technology Why No One Can Keep Up
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Transcript

All right. So we now know that technology is, in fact, accelerating quicker. And we also know that businesses and governments and people in general, are having a very difficult time already dealing with this technology that's far, far quicker than what it used to be 20 3050 years ago. Now, to calculate exactly how quickly you know, technology will continue to improve. A lot of people have gone throughout history and track to the overall development of many technologies over the past hundred plus years. So how long it took the refrigerator to be developed and you know, adopted by say, 80% of the people.

And then they would talk to something like Facebook or mobile phones and compare that sort of rate of development and try and figure out you We seem to be in terms of, you know, development cycles of products and how quickly they take to develop. Now, I'm sure you've seen many exponential graphs, just like this one. And last thing I want to do is add to this terrible trend, but I'm afraid I'm gonna have to because as all these technologies are increasing at an exponential rate, we can actually show it graphically and sort of show where abouts we are in terms of technology developments such as this graph here by white pop Why? And, as you can see, we seem to be right here, which is what they refer to as the knee of the curve. And it's because of things like computing power, miniaturization of technology, artificial intelligence, all these sorts of things building on top of each other, that we're sort of at this point where technology is poised to just explode into essentially infinity.

And obviously, I hope you can tell that this acceleration isn't going to be a linear acceleration where it was, you know, five years, one year, and then four years, the next year, and then three years, the next year, it's going to be an exponential increase. So it will go from being something like 20 years to be 10 years to being five years to being two and a half years, much, much, much quicker than what you know, most people think in their head, which is usually a linear timeframe, because that's what we're used to thinking in linear terms. Now, I know that might sound a bit ridiculous to some people that you know, that type of hardware level change can happen in a 10 or so year period. But it's actually already kind of happened if you think about, you know, where we were 10 years ago versus now.

Even in the hardware world, you can see that billions of devices have been made and rolled out and produced even in in such a short period of time, so the example I'm talking about is actually Android on, you know, it's run on about 80% of all smartphones. And there's about two and a half billion smartphones out there at the moment. 10 years ago, Android, as an operating system just simply didn't exist. It wasn't there. Everyone was using Nokia mobile phones. And since then, that rollout of absolutely astounding number of devices, hardware devices has happened.

And so you can imagine that it will obviously happen or potentially happen again, possibly at a shorter timeframe. Now, Android and smartphones isn't the only example. 10 years ago, there were no iPads. There were no Samsung tablets, there were no Android tablets, the tablets, the entire category itself didn't exist there. There were no smartwatches that entire category as well. Also didn't exist.

The Internet of Things and all those smart devices also didn't exist. And, you know, even such things as solar, you know, while it did exist, it was a vastly different technology where it was, you know, very, very small systems of even like a kilowatt might cost you 10s of thousands of dollars where it's quite different nowadays. So this doesn't just apply to computers as well, energy sectors as well, they can even apply to something as you know, diverses say genetics. So, in genetics, 10 years ago, the CRISPR cast nine, technology, again, didn't exist. And that has fundamentally changed that entire industry. So now with that technology, you can precisely target and cut out you know, entire genes or specific DNA to be whatever you want, you can replace it with whatever you want.

And this works in humans, plants, animals, it is a huge, huge advance in the technology and even beyond that as well that actually developed something called gene drives, which is where, you know, whereas CRISPR cast nine will say replace a gene and maybe turn your eyes from blue to green or something like that. A gene drive has the potential to make it permanent, and actually enforce that on all your offspring. So if you changed from green to blue eyes, and then, you know, had a child with a partner who had whatever other color eyes, it doesn't matter, it would guarantee that that offspring, your child would have blue eyes, and it would continue on through generations and would be permanent, that actually wanting to use this with mosquitoes that developed a way to edit the genes of mosquitoes so that they can't carry malaria. And that together with Gene drives could potentially mean that within a few years, the entire mosquito population would be incapable of carrying the malaria virus.

And, you know, obviously that's a huge win win. Everyone but, you know, the store of controversy controversy around doing that, because it's, you know, quite close to playing sort of God, you're permanently altering a species for ever. So that's a new technology that's come out. And these are the sorts of changes that have happened just in the past 10 years. So you can imagine, if technology has done that much in the past 10 years, and will accelerate and change even more in the next 10 years, you know, both on a hardware and a software level, things are going to change drastically. It looks like, as I said, we're basically the luckiest point in history, you know, in terms of the amount of technology that's coming in, it's coming in from all sides, and it's only going to get faster and better.

Now, while this change is obviously as I've said, affected businesses and you know, people are also affected education as well. And education is really important thing when you're talking about employment. So we'll be talking about In the next section, we'll be talking about why it matters. What's changed over the past sort of 20 years versus, you know, what you might have done 20 years ago versus what you will do now. And we'll just sort of go over that in a bit more detail, so it's a little bit clearer. So I'll have a chat.

We didn't

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